Appendix A: Inflation of the Populations of Certain Areas
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Reference has been made in this and other reports to the fact that the 1921 Census, which. had been planned to take place on the 24th April, had, at the last moment, to be postponed and that it was not possible to carry out the enumeration until the night of the 19th June, nearly two months later. The mere interruption of the chain of administrative processes, carefully prepared in advance to facilitate the smooth working of the whole system of operations, cannot but have had an adverse effect upon the ultimate statistics which the census was designed to provide. The effect is not a measurable one and it is hoped that, owing to the precautions taken, it can be disregarded as negligible. But the change of date in itself had a very definite effect quite apart from the mere disturbance of the machinery. The acceptance of classification of the population by area of enumeration as equivalent to that of normal residence depends very much upon the date on which the census is taken, and past experience has indicated that a day in March or April is the most satisfactory for the purpose for the majority of individual districts. With the lengthening of the days and the rising temperature of the succeeding months, the attractiveness of seaside and health resorts makes itself felt and the summer tidal migration sets in, ultimately enlarging the populations of these areas out of all proportion to their winter strength. The 19th June, the date on which the census was actually taken, succeeded in avoiding the worst of the disturbance—the recognised industrial holiday season—but there is no doubt that, partly because it fell in an unusually warm and fine week-end, the movement had begun and that the populations of the towns usually affected by this migration would have been sensibly lower at the earlier date. Objects requiring the resident population for their treatment are varied and include the important subject of vital statistics—since Births and Deaths are classified strictly according to residence; it clearly became desirable, therefore, to see whether the local inflation could be measured and what adjustment of the census figures would be involved in showing a population distributed by residence instead of by place of enumeration. Examination of the data available indicated that the most satisfactory basis of adjustment would be provided by the information given in the second column of the census schedules in which persons not normally resident with the household were asked to describe themselves as visitors, and the numbers so described were, after consideration, adopted as the basis of the measure of inflation. Caution was required in the application of these returns, however, for it was seen that some visitors had escaped recognition through having been scheduled as boarders or otherwise, while in other cases the visitors so described included persons whose residence was within the locality itself or persons who had no permanent residence elsewhere and who would not, therefore, fall to be deducted in the process of adjustment. In areas where the percentage of the population returned as visitors was small in itself, those returns were adopted without further refinement, since any loss of precision measured.. in relation to the whole population of the area was seen to be of little moment. But in some areas, including most of the more popular holiday resorts, where the proportion of recorded visitors exceeded 10 per cent. of the enumerated populations, special enquiries were addressed to the local census officers with the object of ascertaining precisely whether the enumeration had been attended by any special circumstances tending towards the understatement or overstatement of the number of visitors The qualitative measure of any error thus ascertained was supplemented by a detailed examination of census schedules in respect of a few typical areas from which, with the aid of the statements of workplace contained thereon, it was found possible to gain some idea of the limits within which the difference between the actual inflation and that indicated by the recorded number of visitors might be expected to range. From the combined results of these processes, and with some regard to the returns of the distribution of food rationing cards in November, 1919, a means of making a closer approximation, where necessary, to the actual number of visitors was found possible, and was applied in correction of the visitor return in 69 local areas. For the complementary process of restoring the visitor population to the appropriate areas of residence, no satisfactory statistics on which the several contributions of individual districts might be estimated have been available, and in their absence a fiat rate distribution based upon the local populations, after deducting visitors, has been adopted throughout the country.1
It may be observed, however, that the total recorded census visitors for the whole country numbered only 26 per cent. of the enumerated population and that of these more than half were scattered throughout inland areas and would to a great extent be present whenever the census might be taken. Any error arising through the adoption of an arbitrary method of redistribution will probably be unimportant in the bulk of the urban and rural areas separately dealt with. Further, a redistribution on the lines indicated has the effect of confining all material variation to the relatively small number of holiday resorts, leaving the bulk of the populations in harmony with the census figures. For a statement of the estimated resident population of each of the 1,817 individual boroughs, urban districts and rural districts, reference should be made to the Registrar General.s Statistical Review for 1921. In the majority of the areas the differences between enumerated and estimated resident populations. are unimportant. In only 209 cases do they exceed 3 per cent., and of these only 92 show an inflation estimated to exceed 10 per cent. (of the enumerated figure). The 209 areas in which the inflation or proportion of enumerated population in excess of the estimated resident population was more than 3 per cent. are shown in alphabetical order in the following table. INFLATION.—
BOROUGHS, URBAN DISTRICTS AND RURAL DISTRICTS OF ENGLAND AND WALES, IN WHICH IT HAS BEEN ESTIMATED THAT MORE THAN 3 PER CENT. OF THE 1921 ENUMERATED POPULATION CONSISTED OF TEMPORARY VISITORS. 1
The resident population of the Administrative County of London obtained in this way was distributed amongst the constituent Metropolitan Boroughs, in proportion to their total enumerated population.APPENDIX A.—INFLATION OF THE POPULATIONS
OF CERTAIN AREAS.—CENSUS 1921.District.
Enumerated
Population
1921.Excess of
enumerated over
estimated resident
population
expressed as
a percentage of
the former.
BOROUGHS AND URBAN DISTRICTS.
Aberayron U.D.
1,312
%
6.0Abergele and Pensarn U.D.
2,631
13.1
Aberystwyth M.B.
11,211
19.9
Aldeburgh M.B.
2,889
11.4
Ambleside U.D.
2,876
20.1
Appleby M.B.
1,785
7.1
Arundel M.B.
2,742
3.7
Bakewell U.D.
3,064
3.2
Bala U.D.
1,405
3.1
Barmouth U.D.
3,553
43.5
Barnard Castle U.D.
4,738
5.0
Baslow and Bubnell U.D.
866
6.4
Beaconsfield U.D.
3,642
3.6
Beaumaris M.B.
1,841
6.3
Berwick upon Tweed M.B.
12,985
5.1
Bettws y Coed U.D.
1,025
15.2
Bexhill M.B.
20,363
13.5
Blackpool C.B.
99,639
25.9
Bognor U.D.
13,302
13.6
Bournemouth C.B.
91,761
11.5
Bridlington M.B.
22,764
33.2
Brighton C.B.
142,430
5.4
Broadstairs and St. Peter's U.D.
15,471
28.0
Budleigh Salterton U.D.
2,624
8.5
Builth Wells U.D.
1,777
5.4
Burnham on Sea U.D.
5,571
11.6
Buxton M.B.
15,641
5.5
Chorleywood U.D.
2,444
4.4
Church Stretton U.D.
1,669
12.6
Clacton U.D.
17,051
31.1
Clevedon U.D.
6,724
7.1
Colwyn Bay and Colwyn U.D.
18,774
15.7
Conway M.B.
6,506
5.0
Criccieth U.D.
1,886
4.5
Cromer U.D.
5,436
26.2
Dawlish U.D.
4,675
6.8
Deal M.B.
12,998
5.8
Dolgelley U.D.
2,013
3.1
Droitwich M.B.
4,591
14.6
Eastbourne C.B.
62,028
13.6
Exmouth U.D.
13,606
6.0
Felixstowe U.D.
11,686
18.7
Filey U.D.
4,549
25.9
Folkestone M.B.
37,535
9.5
Fowey M.B.
2,170
8.0
Frinton on Sea U.D.
3,032
34.0
Grange U.D.
2,920
29.6
Grasmere U.D.
1,173
27.3
Great Yarmouth C.B.
60,700
7.3
Harrogate M.B.
38,885
11.6
Harwich M.B.
13,046
4.7
Haslemere U.D.
3,865
3.2
Hastings C.B.
66,495
10.5
Henley on Thames M.B.
6,836
3.8
Herne Bay U.D.
11,872
14.7
Hexham U.D.
8,843
3.9
HeyshamU.D.
5,027
24.0
Holme Cultram U.D.
5,419
12.5
Hornsea U.D.
4,279
13.5
Hove M.B.
46,505
5.1
Hoylake and West Kirby U.D.
17,068
3.1
Hythe M.B.
7,767
4.2
Ilfracombe U.D.
11,772
25.8
Ilkley U.D.
9,098
5.7
Keswick U.D.
5,555
23.0
Kirklington cum Upsland U.D.
246
3.3
Knaresborough U.D.
5,518
3.2
Littlehampton U.D.
11,287
22.8
Llandilo U.D.
2,102
3.4
Llandrindod Wells U.D.
4,596
39.4
Llandudno U.D.
19,281
33.1
Llanfairfechan U.D.
3,639
15.3
Llangollen U.D.
3,679
9.7
Llanwrtyd U.D.
1,173
33.9
Looe U.D.
2,868
8.2
Lyme Regis M.B.
2,882
20.9
Lynton U.D.
2,587
34.1
Lytham U.D.
10,835
6.4
Mablethorpe U.D.
2,852
31.1
Mallwyd U.D.
733
4.6
Malvern U.D.
17,812
4.5
Margate M.B.
46,480
40.3
Marlow U.D.
5,144
3.2
Matlock U.D.
7,060
11.4
Matlock Bath and Scarthin Nick U.D.
1,823
7.1
Menai Bridge U.D.
1,798
3.4
Minehead U.D.
6,013
15.6
Morecambe M.B.
19,178
29.0
Newbiggin by the Sea U.D.
6,808
4.2
New Hunstanton U.D.
4,289
29.1
New Quay U.D. (Card.)
1,253
11.1
Newquay U.D. (Cornwall)
6,637
26.0
New Romney M.B.
1,604
6.5
Paignton U.D.
14,451
13.6
Penmaenmawr U .D.
4,483
7.5
Penzance M.B.
12,087
3.3
Porthcawl U.D.
6,642
16.7
Preesall U.D.
1,867
10.3
Prestatyn U.D.
4,083
27.9
Pwllheli M.B.
3,809
7.0
Ramsgate M.B.
36,561
17.7
Redcar U.D.
16,401
5.8
Rhyl U.D.
13,490
22.7
Rothbury U.D.
1,682
27.7
Royal Tunbridge Wells M.B.
35,551
3.6
Ryde M.B.
11,294
7.8
St. Anne's on the Sea U.D.
15,042
30.1
St. Helens U.D. (Isle of Wight)
5,706
14.6
St. Ives M.B. (Cornwall)
6,947
5.7
Salcombe U.D.
2,199
9.3
Saltburn by the Sea U.D.
4,719
17.7
Sandgate U.D.
2,768
6.9
Sandown U.D.
7,661
29.0
Scalby U.D.
1,437
3.3
Scarborough M.B.
46,179
18.8
Seaford U.D.
6,989
13.6
Seaton U.D.
2,295
19.6
Shanklin U.D.
7,368
41.8
Sheringham U.D.
4,771
23.9
Sidmouth U.D.
5,668
12.9
Skegness U.D.
9,246
51.6
Southend on Sea C.B.
106,010
14.6
Southport C.B.
76,621
6.2
Southwold M.B.
3,370
17.6
Stow on the Wold U.D.
1,205
3.9
Stratford on Avon M.B.
9,392
4.7
Stratton and Bude U.D.
3,958
21.1
Swanage U.D.
7,106
22.9
Teignmouth U.D.
10,970
15.7
Tenby M.B.
4,832
11.9
Thornton U.D.
6,182
13.6
Torquay M.B.
39,431
14.6
Towyn U.D.
4,413
14.7
Ventnor U.D.
6,059
18.6
Walsoken U.D.
4,587
14.1
Walton on the Naze U.D.
3,664
33.1
Watchet U.D.
1,883
3.7
Weston super Mare U.D.
31,643
20.8
Weybridge U.D.
6,684
3.1
Weymouth and Melcombe Regis M.B.
24,556
9.5
Whitby U.D.
12,510
4.8
Whitley and Monkseaton U.D.
22,228
13.6
Whitstable U.D.
9,842
7.1
Windermere U.D.
6,495
19.8
Windlesham U.D.
4,878
3.7
Withernsea U.D.
4,701
17.7
Woodhall Spa U.D.
1,635
12.4
Worthing M.B.
35,215
10.5
RURAL DISTRICTS.
Aberystwyth
12,297
3.2
Alnwick
14,367
13.8
Alston with Garrigill
3,344
17.2
Axminster
9,807
3.1
Aysgarth
4,394
4.4
Barnstaple
19,293
7.2
Belford
5,654
12.6
Bellingham
5,952
5.4
Blean
8,682
4.6
Bootle
6,420
7.1
Brampton
8,876
9.3
Bridlington
8,154
4.2
Camelford
7,730
3.9
Castle Ward
13,137
4.0
Catherington
4,157
10.5
Christchurch
5,314
3.8
Conway
8,520
3.5
Cookham
13,714
3.4
Dolgelley
8,365
6.9
Dorking
10,575
3.7
Dover
8,873
3.6
East Preston
7,449
4.5
Edeirnion
4,936
3.3
Erpingham
17,890
4.0
Glendale
8,351
3.6
Goring
3,318
5.0
Haltwhistle
9,751
3.8
Havant
6,944
5.6
Hexham
24,585
10.5
Isle of Thanet
14,085
14.6
Isle of Wight
30,910
4.5
Kingsbridge
11,627
4.7
Lancaster
9,734
4.3
Leyburn
6,388
4.1
Llanfyrnach
2,419
3.5
Llangollen
3,779
3.3
Lymington
12,890
3.2
Machynlleth
3,911
3.1
Marshland
15,589
10.1
Marston Sicca
1,728
3.4
Newhaven
6,211
5.6
Norham and Islandshires
5,996
9.2
Reeth
2,532
7.0
Rock
2,221
3.2
Romney Marsh
3,158
4.5
Rothbury
5,054
6.0
St. Asaph (Flint)
8,157
5.7
Scarborough
6,452
5.1
South Westmorland
19,398
4.8
Spilsby
21,804
3.8
Startforth
5,331
12.6
Steyning West
10,205
3.6
Stokesley
12,918
3.3
Tavistock
15,609
3.8
Thakeham
8,416
3.2
Westhampnett
17,871
3.6
West Ward
6,519
7.8
Whitby
9,691
11.2
Williton
11,947
3.8
Unnamed RD. (Ysgubor y coed C.P.) (administered by the Rural District Council of Machynlleth, Montgomeryshire)
347
6.6
Unnamed R.D. (Pennal C.P.) (administered by the Rural District Council of Machynlleth, Montgomeryshire)
426
4.5